Among the biggest potential winners is William Ackman's
Pershing Square Capital Management, which is sitting on a paper profit
of more than $800m on investments in the debt and equity of GGP,
according to people familiar with Mr Ackman's fund. Other investors
that stand to make big profits on holdings in the high-profile retail
property owner include Centerbridge Partners, Elliott Associates,
Goldman Sachs, John Paulson's Paulson & Co and York Capital, the
people said.
"General Growth is a fantastic
example of the speed with which
real-estate finance is coming back," said Bob Steers, co-chairman of
real estate investment firm Cohen & Steers, which has not invested
in General Growth.
GGP, owner of malls including Boston's Faneuil Hall Marketplace and
Honolulu's Ala Moana Center, (Holladays
Cottonwood Mall, Murrays Fashion Place Mall, Logans Cache Valley Mall,
Ogdens Newgate Mall, Provos Towne Center Mall, St Georges Red Cliffs
Mall and thriteen (13) Community Centers in Utah) and filed
for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in April. It has about $22bn in
senior secured debt and $6bn in debt not backed by collateral.
During the darkest days of the financial crisis, the value of
GGP's unsecured debt fell below 10 cents on the dollar. That debt has
soared to 95 cents as markets have revived amid unprecedented stimulus
efforts. Equity in the mall owner, which is traded over the counter,
has risen to about $7 a share from less than a dollar.
GGP commanded a market value of about $10bn when Lehman
Brothers collapsed in September 2008. Two months later, GGP shares were
worth just $100m. The revival of GGP's fortunes is helping to validate
the views of investors who reckoned that the company was essentially
brought down by a panic in the mortgage-backed securities markets in
which it raised financing.
"It is a classic good-company, bad-balance-sheet operation," said Jeff
Aronson, co-founder of Centerbridge Partners.
Mr Ackman began accumulating his GGP position in November
2008, said a person familiar with the fund. He spent $50m on stock -
priced at under a $1 a share at the time - that is now worth $560m. He
invested $100m in unsecured debt now worth $400m. Centerbridge holds
$300m in GGP unsecured debt, purchased when it was trading for 30-odd
cents on the dollar, a person familiar with the fund said.
Last week, lenders restructured $9bn of GGP commercial
mortgage-backed securities. In return for lengthening the maturity of
the debt, lenders received fees and tighter documentation. Some
analysts believe that GGP could have avoided a bankruptcy filing if it
had been able to extend the maturities of its debt earlier.
Simon Property also said last week it hired advisers as it
considers a possible bid for GGP. Such a transaction could be valued at
up to $30bn if Simon were to bid for all of GGP's holdings, according
to a person familiar with the potential deal.
The GGP rally is also certain to stir the debate over whether
the Federal Reserve's low-interest rate policy is working - or is
instead encouraging the formation of new bubbles in the markets. In
last week's Global Data Watch, JPMorgan said: "The recovery trade is
largely complete, leaving us in an asset reflation phase."
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