Global Business Confidence:

Business sentiment remains in a funk, as does the global economy. The global economic recovery remains intact, but growth is weak and not sufficient to forestall further increases in unemployment. Sentiment is not appreciably different across the globe; confidence in South America, which had been better, has recently weakened. The most discouraging aspect of the survey is the slump in responses to the broad questions on present conditions and expectations regarding the outlook into next spring. The most encouraging aspect of the survey is that hiring and investment intentions continue to hold up reasonably well. Pricing is soft, but deflation remains unlikely.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence: +1.6
The Conference Board index of consumer confidence rose slightly in October but remained at its second lowest level since February. It rose to 50.2 from 48.6 (revised from 48.5). The low level remains a concern for the spending outlook. The expectations component led the gain. It rose to 67.8 from 65.5 (previously 65.4). The present situation component inched up to 23.9 from 23.3 (previously 23.1). Stronger assessments of business conditions were partly offset by weaker assessments of labor market conditions.

Jobless Claims: -21,000
Initial claims decreased by 21,000 to 434,000 for the week ending October 23; the previous week's data were revised up slightly from 452,000 to 455,000. The drop was unexpected and is a move in the right direction, but it will need to be duplicated in the weeks ahead to indicate that the labor market recovery is gathering momentum. Continuing claims decreased by 122,000 to 4.356 million for the week ending October 16, though this does not include the millions more on extended and emergency benefits.

Existing-Home Sales: +10%
Consistent with expectations, home sales are recovering from the post-tax credit slump. September sales of existing homes increased to 4.53 million annualized units. The 10% gain from August is the fastest on record, but even this strong gain only brings sales back up near the pace of early 2009, the cyclical low that was hit before the distortions caused by the two homebuyer tax credits. Months of supply eased, but it remains elevated at 10.7. The median house price is down by 2% from one year ago.

S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes: -0.3%
As measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes, existing-house prices weakened in August, reflecting the softening of sales that followed the end of the homebuyer tax credit. The seasonally adjusted 20-city composite index fell 0.3% from the three months ending in July to the three months ending in August. The seasonally adjusted 10-city index experienced a smaller drop, falling 0.2%. The 20-city index rose 1.7% from its year-ago level, which is a smaller rise than had been expected.

FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index: -2.4%
The FHFA purchase-only house price index increased 0.4% from July to August, though it is still down 2.4% from its level in August 2009. This year-over-year decline is slightly below expectations and reflects the subdued state of home sales and the stagnant job market, which continue to pull back demand after the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit. Nevertheless, the slight increase in August is a sign that the housing market might be over the worst of the post-tax credit hangover.

Chain Store Sales Snapshot: 0.3%
Chain store sales rose modestly in the latest week, continuing to bounce between gains and losses since late August but maintaining a slow downward trend. According to the ICSC, sales grew 0.3% in the week ending October 23. Year-over-year growth inched up to 1.9%. The ICSC blamed much of the weakness, which was concentrated at department and apparel stores, on unseasonably warm weather.

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report: +71.00 bcf
Working gas in underground storage rose by 71 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 22, below the consensus estimate of a 74 bcf build. This report should boost natural gas prices.

Source: Economy.com