Global Business Confidence:

Global businesses remain confident enough to propel the global economic recovery forward, but not confident enough to ensure that growth will be sufficient to start bringing down the very high level of global unemployment. Sentiment is just barely consistent with the global economy's growth potential. This is roughly where sentiment has been since it fell this past spring when the European sovereign debt crisis was at its apex. The most discouraging aspect of the survey is the slump in responses to the broad questions on present conditions and expectations regarding the outlook into next spring. The most encouraging aspect of the survey is that hiring and investment intentions are holding up reasonably well. Pricing is soft, but there is no sign of deflation.

Bankruptcy Filings:-6.7%
Bankruptcy filings fell in the third quarter. It was the fifth consecutive quarterly decline for business filings and the second decline in the last four quarters for personal filings. Business filings were well below their year-ago level for the second straight quarter while year-over-year growth in personal filings continued to fall. Personal filings were 6.7% above last year, and only 3.2% above the average level of filings from 2001 through 2004-before reform legislation and in a far better credit environment. Business bankruptcies were down 8% from last year.

Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: -10.5%
Increased competition and reduced uncertainty in the economic outlook have enticed banks to continue to loosen lending standards. The Federal Reserve's senior loan officer opinion survey, which covered most of the third quarter, showed that domestic banks loosened the credit spigot, but the improvement was less broad based than that seen in previous surveys. While this is favorable for future growth, additional improvement is needed because credit conditions are still difficult and many banks don't expect standards to return to their historical averages for the "foreseeable future." Though banks are making credit more readily available, demand remains weak, which is likely attributable to the downshift in growth in the second half of this year.

Employment Situation: +151,000
The October employment report confirms that the economy regained momentum early in the fourth quarter. Total nonfarm payrolls rose a better than expected 151,000, led by a 159,000 increase in private employment. Government employment fell by 8,000. The details were upbeat, with those that are employed seeing their earnings improve and their hours pick up. While the labor market appears to have shifted from first to second gear, more improvement is needed to start chipping away at the unemployment rate, which held steady in October at 9.6%.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey:+ 11.6%
The number of job openings and hires changed little in September compared with the prior month. Job openings edged down to 2.9 million from 3.1 million, while hires edged higher from 4.16 million to 4.19 million. Separations edged down from 4.2 million to 4.19 million. Therefore, separations just offset hires in contrast to August when census layoffs drove separations higher. Private sector hires increase in September but so did separations. Yet, net hiring was positive.

Wholesale Trade (MWTR):+ 1.5%
Wholesale inventories surged 1.5% in September after rising an upwardly revised 1.2% in August (previously 0.8%). The consensus estimate was for a far smaller increase of 0.7%. Sales rose 0.4% after rising by an unrevised 0.5% in August. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose by 2 basis points to 1.18.

Consumer Credit (G19): +$2.1 bil
Consumer credit outstanding increased unexpectedly, rising by $2.1 billion to a total of $2.412 trillion. The split between revolving and nonrevolving credit widened; revolving balances declined more rapidly, but the loss was counterbalanced by an even larger increase in nonrevolving credit balances.

Pending Home Sales: -1.85
Pending home sales unexpectedly declined between August and September, tempering optimism about the pace of recovery in the housing market. The national index fell 1.8% over the month to a level of 80.9, although there was a wide range of outcomes across the country. Three of the four census regions experienced a decrease in pending sales; the West posted the sole increase.

Chain Store Sales Snapshot: +1.3%
Chain store sales rose strongly in the latest week. It was the largest weekly gain since mid-July and the first time the index has strung together three consecutive gains since April. According to the ICSC, cooler weather lifted sales 1.3% in the week ending November 6. Year-over-year growth jumped to 3.4%. Results are encouraging, although their sustainability is not certain.

Source: Economy.com