Global Business Confidence:

Global business confidence remains consistent with a global economy that is barely growing at its potential. Sentiment is not appreciably different across the globe; confidence, which had been holding up better in South America, has recently weakened. European confidence has also softened in recent weeks. The most discouraging aspect of the survey is the sharp slump in responses to the broad questions on present conditions and expectations regarding the outlook into next spring. The most encouraging aspect of the survey is that hiring and investment intentions are holding up well

Semiconductor Billings: 1.8%
Global semiconductor sales increased 1.8% in August. The three-month moving average of sales reached $25.69 billion, 32.6% higher than in August 2009. The Americas exhibited robust growth, while European semiconductor sales lost momentum as sovereign debt worries weighed on confidence.

Personal Income: +0.5%
Personal income growth accelerated in August while spending growth remained healthy. Income was up 0.5% from July, the fastest growth since December. Spending grew 0.4%, the same pace as July. Income growth was driven by the resumption of special unemployment insurance benefits. Spending growth was driven by a large increase in nondurable goods spending. The saving rate ticked up to 5.8% and has hovered near 6% since April. Real spending grew 0.2% as the top-line PCE deflator rose 0.2%. Core prices rose 0.1% as low inflation supports consumer budgets.

Factory Orders (M3): -0.5%
New orders for manufactured goods fell 0.5% in August. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.9%. Nondurable goods shipments rose 0.3%, the first increase in five months. Nondurable inventories fell 0.3%. Revisions to core capital goods were small and suggest that the manufacturing expansion is intact, albeit slowing.

Challenger Report: +6.9%
Challenger's tally of corporate layoffs signals improvement in the labor market. Announced cutbacks increased 6.9% to 37,151 in September but are down 44% from a year ago. Challenger's data show more improvement than does the weekly government count of first-time jobless claims, but this is because Challenger's survey excludes many small businesses, which are lagging in the economic recovery.

Construction Spending (C30): +0.4%
Seasonally adjusted construction spending in August increased 0.4% from July, doing better than expected. Total spending is still 10% below its level in August 2009. The monthly increase is due to a substantial increase in public construction spending that offset declines in private residential and nonresidential construction spending-combined private spending fell by 0.9%. Given the fragility of state finances and the coming end of federal stimulus funding, the August numbers indicate that builder confidence is still on the decline.

Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes: +3.6%
The Case-Shiller home price indexes increased in the second quarter of this year, supported by the homebuyer tax credit. The national index increased quarter over quarter by an annualized 9.6%, an increase that is evident in all census divisions but the West North Central. Even in this region, the year-over-year increase is a sturdy 6%. The quarter-to-quarter U.S. gain is the strongest since 2005. This good performance is unlikely to last, given the large number of distressed homes in the foreclosure pipeline.

Pending Home Sales: +4.3%
Pending home sales are recovering ground lost during the retreat in the early part of the summer. The pending home sales index increased 4.3% between July and August following a downwardly revised 4.5% rise during the previous month. However, at 82.3, the index is only slightly higher than its record low point during early 2009. Three of the four census regions posted an increase in sales during August; the Northeast experienced a decline.

MBA Mortgage Applications Survey: -.2%
In the week ending October 1, the market index dropped 0.2% amid a decline in refinance applications; it now stands at 782.6. The refinance index fell to 4,180.8, a decline of 2.5% from the previous week. Meanwhile, the purchase applications index jumped 9.3% to 198.7.

Chain Store Sales Snapshot: -0.8%
Chain store sales resumed their descent in the latest week. According to the ICSC, sales fell 0.8% in the week ending October 2, leaving them only 2.4% ahead of last year. The latter was the weakest in four weeks. The ICSC noted warmer than normal weather as a drag on customer traffic and sales. The decline was larger than anticipated and precipitated a modest downgrade of the ICSC projection for the month of September.

Oil and Gas Inventories: +3.1 mil barrels
Crude oil inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels during the week ending October 1, well above the consensus estimate for a 413,000 barrel increase. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels, exceeding expectations of a 250,000 barrel decline. Distillate inventories fell by 1.1 million barrels, in line with analysts' expectations. Refinery capacity utilization fell precipitously for the second consecutive week from 85.8% to 83.1%. Petroleum demand fell considerably. This report should push oil prices lower.