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Monday Report


From Bonneville Research February 14, 2011


Dear Reader,
 

Last week we did a piece on - "Where the Mormons are".  Many of you responded with questions about where some of the counties were located.  I have posted on the Bonneville Research website a revised table with either the principal city or a well known city that may help most of you know where the counties are.

 

Also one correction: Jefferson County, ID should have been 75.1% not 7.51%.

 

Food stamp rolls explode

 

Nationwide, one in seven Americans currently receives help from the government to put food on the table. All but 14 states saw double-digit spikes in the number of people getting food stamps over the one-year period that ended in November 2010.

 

Idaho, Nevada, Delaware and Utah had the largest one-year increases in the country: 28%, 27% and 25% respectively according to the latest USDA figures.


 
Why Idaho and Utah? 

 

Nevada, which has the country's highest unemployment rate at 14.5 percent may be understandable, but why Idaho with 9.5% and Utah with a 7.5% rate?

 

Is it because unemployment is still three times higher than we were in 2007 - Idaho 3.4% & Utah 2.5%?

 

In 2008, Utah and Idaho had some of the lowest participation rates in the State Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program with only 55% of those eligible participating where Maine and Oregon had over 92%.

 

Just running out of options? 

 

The Utah Food Bank has been reporting a 40% increase in demand.   Figures of those persons receiving LDS Church assistance are not available.

 

http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29SNAPcurrPP.htm

 

SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM:  NUMBER OF PERSONS PARTICIPATING

( Data as of January 31, 2011 )

Selected States

November

October

November

November 2010 vs


2009

2010

2010

Oct-10

Nov-09

 

 

Preliminary

Initial

 

 

Idaho

170,962

216,658

219,271

1.20%

28.30%

Nevada

254,376

317,641

322,950

1.70%

27.00%

Delaware

102,870

127,255

129,049

1.40%

25.40%

Utah

214,761

271,868

268,216

-1.30%

24.90%

Florida

2,430,767

2,951,682

2,994,413

1.40%

23.20%

Maryland

527,111

630,341

643,651

2.10%

22.10%

New Jersey

578,954

702,119

706,702

0.70%

22.10%

Texas

3,228,061

3,893,077

3,925,119

0.80%

21.60%

New Mexico

334,537

393,656

399,454

1.50%

19.40%

Hawaii

131,361

150,480

153,018

1.70%

16.50%

California

3,041,650

3,499,878

3,521,881

0.60%

15.80%

Alaska

69,048

66,363

79,242

19.40%

14.80%

Colorado

379,956

428,941

435,306

1.50%

14.60%

Washington

897,113

1,015,622

1,019,791

0.40%

13.70%

Montana

106,343

118,915

120,013

0.90%

12.90%

Oregon

672,036

744,317

749,498

0.70%

11.50%

Wyoming

32,332

35,703

35,924

0.60%

11.10%

Arizona

986,276

1,055,205

1,050,181

-0.50%

6.50%

     TOTAL

38,183,998

43,200,837

43,595,794

0.90%

14.20%

 

http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29SNAPcurrPP.htm

 

http://frac.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/2008_snaprates_toptens.pdf

 

 

www.BonnevilleResearch.com

 

 
Bob Springmeyer
 
801-364-5300 o
801-673-9021 c

Jon Springmeyer
 
801-746-5706 o
801-673-9021 c
 

 


Scorecard:

  

The office market is driven directly by jobs!

Salt Lake County lost 39,479 jobs between 2007 and 2010.

It is surprising that the Office market has held as well as it has.

 

 

Salt Lake County Direct Office Space

 

 

Total SF

Available SF

Absorption SF

Vacancy

Rents PSF**

Central Business District

Overall

 

 

 

 

 

2010

    7,174,194

  1,042,216

  21,570

14.53%

$23.58

2009

    7,103,494

  1,291,165

(165,198)

18.18%

$23.22

2008

    6,655,080

685,225

  76,468

10.30%

$21.73

2007

    6,585,361

725,463

(55,864)

11.02%

$21.67

Class A

 

 

 

 

 

2010

    3,717,513

478,702

(12,779)

12.88%

$28.69

2009

    3,389,613

656,698

(129,081)

19.37%

$27.83

2008

    2,671,086

106,713

  67,438

4.00%

$26.71

2007

    2,671,086

174,151

(76,273)

6.52%

$26.54

Class B

 

 

 

 

 

2010

    1,808,070

231,871

  54,007

12.82%

$20.49

2009

    2,132,070

399,222

(65,456)

18.72%

$21.75

2008

    2,564,477

304,457

(28,099)

11.87%

$19.83

2007

    2,420,070

190,003

  63,698

7.85%

$19.59

Class C

 

 

 

 

 

2010

    1,648,611

331,643

(19,658)

20.12%

$15.52

2009

    1,581,811

235,245

  29,339

14.87%

$15.31

2008

    1,419,517

274,055

  37,129

19.31%

$15.77

2007

    1,494,205

361,309

(43,289)

21.18%

$16.24

 Periphery

Overall

 

 

 

 

 

2010

    3,617,561

412,725

(23,964)

11.41%

$19.08

2009

    3,617,561

313,607

(51,274)

8.67%

$19.19

2008

    3,617,561

262,333

  26,008

7.25%

$18.94

2007

    3,629,073

263,831

 270,266

7.27%

$18.62

Class A

 

 

 

 

 

2010

    1,332,687

34,911

    6,000

2.62%

$22.79

2009

    1,332,687

33,250

  (7,380)

2.49%

$23.06

2008

    1,332,687

25,870

  50,677

1.94%

$22.58

2007

    1,272,687

16,547

 251,612

1.30%

$22.65

Class B

 

 

 

 

 

2010

    1,404,551

219,641

  (9,076)

15.64%

$18.71

2009

    1,404,551

124,105

  (4,527)

8.84%

$18.68

2008

    1,404,551

119,578

  29,612

8.51%

$18.77

2007

    1,401,120

149,190

    6,336

10.65%

$18.28

Class C

 

 

 

 

 

2010

 880,323

158,173

(20,888)

15.59%

$14.05

2009

 880,323

156,252

(39,367)

17.75%

$14.15

2008

 880,323

116,885

(54,281)

13.28%

$13.67

2007

 955,896

98,094

  12,318

10.26%

$13.77

Suburban

Overall

 

 

 

 

 

2010

20,490,990

3,455,483

(102,823)

16.86%

$19.61

2009

20,371,124

3,281,521

 304,522

16.11%

$19.91

2008

20,428,791

3,029,369

 204,884

14.83%

$19.93

2007

19,085,324

2,163,421

 938,900

11.34%

$19.42

Class A

 

 

 

 

 

2010

7,889,100

787,471

  66,296

9.98%

$23.01

2009

7,796,067

944,990

 198,505

12.12%

$23.22

2008

8,082,140

1,007,171

 497,090

12.46%

$23.11

2007

6,908,703

668,439

 768,815

9.68%

$22.73

Class B

 

 

 

 

 

2010

8,207,331

1,597,592

(169,005)

19.47%

$18.95

2009

8,268,550

1,348,061

 158,332

16.30%

$19.33

2008

7,921,891

1,202,661

(108,651)

15.18%

$19.32

2007

7,595,027

867,665

 135,967

11.42%

$19.06

Class C

 

 

 

 

 

2010

4,394,559

1,070,420

 (114)

24.36%

$14.76

2009

4,306,507

988,470

(52,315)

22.95%

$15.02

2008

4,424,760

819,537

(183,555)

18.52%

$15.31

2007

4,581,594

627,317

  34,118

16.69%

$15.01

Total Market

 

 

 

 

 

2010

31,282,745

4,910,424

(105,217)

15.70%

$20.47

2009

31,092,179

4,886,293

  88,050

15.72%

$20.58

2008

30,701,432

3,976,927

 307,360

12.95%

$20.20

2007

29,300,388

3,152,715

   1,153,302

10.76%

$19.82









Economic Notes:

 

Global Business Confidence:

The global economy has started 2011 strongly, according to the global business confidence survey. Sentiment is as strong as it has been since summer 2006, before the financial panic and Great Recession. Sales, equipment investment and hiring have all improved in recent weeks. Responses to the broadest questions in the survey regarding current conditions and the outlook through midyear are particularly positive. Businesses are more upbeat across most of the globe, with the exception of Japan. Pricing power remains modest and is not consistent with concerns that inflation is set to accelerate significantly.

 

Treasury Budget: -3%
The unified budget deficit for January was $50 billion. Through the first four months of fiscal 2011, the deficit was down 3% from last year. Although the budget deficit has been shrinking as the economy has recovered, it will widen again in 2011 with the fiscal policy agreement between President Obama and congressional Republicans.

 

Wholesale Trade (MWTR): +1.0%
Wholesale inventories rose 1% in December, surpassing the consensus estimate of a 0.7% increase. Sales advanced 0.4%. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.16.

 

Consumer Credit (G19): $6.1 bil
Consumer credit outstanding increased by a surprisingly strong $6.1 billion in December, reaching a total of $2.41 trillion. It was particularly noteworthy that revolving credit increased for the first time since August 2008, snapping a remarkable 27-month losing streak. Nonrevolving credit balances also rose, though at a slower pace than in the recent months.
 
Jobless Claims:-47,000
In a surprise, initial claims decreased by 36,000 to 383,000 for the week ending February 5; the prior week's data were revised from 415,000 to 419,000. This was the second large decline in a row; if sustained, it would suggest that the labor market is recovering faster. Continuing claims decreased by 47,000 to 3.888 million for the week ending January 29, though there remain millions more on extended and emergency benefits not counted in this figure.


Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey: 21.0%
The JOLTS report for December, which straddles the December and January payroll employment releases, shows little progress for the labor market. The number of job openings edged lower, extending the prior month's modest dip. The number of hires has also lost some traction, receding slightly. Despite the small decline, the hires rate was unmoved at 3.2%. The number of separations nudged higher, pushed by both increasing quits and an uptick in layoffs. Like the hires rate, the small changes were not enough to move the separations rate, which also stands at 3.2%. Private sector hiring remains slightly stronger than separations, but hiring is not yet strong enough to drive robust job growth.

NAR Metro Prices:+ 0.2%
On a year-ago basis, the national median house price rose only slightly in the fourth quarter, even though total sales are down 19.5% over the same period. National prices increased 0.2% from last year, about the same as the 0.2% year-to-year decrease in the third quarter. Performance was mixed across regions: The Northeast is above year-ago levels, and the West is below. Meanwhile, the South and Midwest are unchanged. Similarly, at the metro level, performance was split: 71 out of 152 metro areas remain below year-ago levels

 

MBA Mortgage Applications Survey: 464.7
Mortgage applications declined this week with weakness showing in all three composite indices. The market index fell 5.5% from last week and is now at 464.7. The purchase and refinance indices decreased 1.4% and 7.7% this week, respectively. Both the purchase index and the refinance index have generally trended down since the beginning of January.


Chain Store Sales Snapshot: 2.2%
Chain store sales posted their first gain of calendar 2011 despite continued adverse weather. In the latest week, sales rose 2.2% according to the ICSC, reversing the declines of the prior two weeks. Year-over-year growth improved to 2.5%. Low sales volume tends to increase volatility and weather sensitivity at this time of year.
 

Oil and Gas Inventories: 345.1 mil barrels
Crude oil inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels during the week ending February 4, in line with expectations. Distillate inventories rose by 300,000 barrels, contrasting with expectations of a 1-million barrel decline, while gasoline inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels, above the expected 2.6-million barrel increase. Inventories fell by 900,000 barrels in Cushing OK. Refinery capacity utilization increased from 84.5% to 84.7%. Petroleum demand rose. This mixed report should push oil prices higher.
 

Natural Gas Storage Report: -209 bcf
Working gas in underground storage fell by 209 billion cubic feet during the week ending February 4, far exceeding the consensus estimate of a 196 bcf decline. This report will push natural gas prices higher.

 

Source: Economy.com

 

 

 


Grants:

 

Create Assisted Living Facilities!
Assisted Living Conversion Program For Eligible Multifamily Housing Projects
POSTED: 1/24/2011
FUNDING SOURCE: HUD
ELIGIBILITY: Eligible multifamily housing developments specified in the RFP
$ AVAILABLE: $30,000,000
GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
MAX GRANT SIZE: N.A.
DEADLINE: 3/29/2011
CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-01-28/html/2011-1899.htm
DESCRIPTION: Grants for the physical conversion of eligible multifamily assisted housing projects or portions of projects to assisted living facilities (ALFs).


Grants for Native American Organizations!
Social and Economic Development Strategies for Native Americans (SEDS)
POSTED: 2/1/2011
FUNDING SOURCE: Administration for Native Americans
ELIGIBILITY: Tribes and Alaska Native entities
$ AVAILABLE: $7,850,000
GRANTS AVAILABLE: 36
MAX GRANT SIZE: $400,000
DEADLINE: 4/1/2011
CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.acf.hhs.gov/grants/open/foa/view/HHS-2011-ACF-ANA-NA-0143
DESCRIPTION: Grants for a wide variety of economic or social development projects that will improve life outcomes for Native Americans and/or the self-governance ability of Native American Tribes and Alaskan Native entities. Most project concepts are eligible, with the exception of construction activities.


Improve Knowledge of American History!
Teaching American History Grant Program
POSTED: 2/2/2011
FUNDING SOURCE: Dept. of Education
ELIGIBILITY: LEAs
$ AVAILABLE: $2,000,000
GRANTS AVAILABLE: 80
MAX GRANT SIZE: N.A.
DEADLINE: 3/4/2011 (LOI); 4/4/2011 (final)
CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-02-02/html/2011-2290.htm
DESCRIPTION: Grants to improve the teaching of American History through professional development for public school teachers.


HUD Service Coordinator Grants!
Service Coordinators in Multifamily Housing
POSTED: 1/25/2011
FUNDING SOURCE: HUD
ELIGIBILITY: Eligible subsidized housing developments
$ AVAILABLE: $31,000,000
GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
MAX GRANT SIZE: N.A.
DEADLINE: 3/24/2011
CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.grants.gov/search/search.do?mode=VIEW&oppId=66313
DESCRIPTION: Grants to owners of eligible subsidized housing developments to hire staff to coordinate supportive services for elderly residents and/or residents living with disabilities.

 







In This Issue
Scorecard:
Economic Notes:
Grants:
Bonneville Research:
Entrepreneurship:
Facebook:
Glossary Key Economic Development Terms:
Bonneville Research Website:
Next Weeks Monday Report:
This Weeks Lead:

Monday Report Archive

Visit the Monday Report Archive

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Belatedly, recovery sparks rise in entrepreneurship:

 

While January's employment report was one of the more confusing in recent memory, the broad set of incoming data suggests the recovery is gaining momentum. In particular, the data appear to be accurately showing improvement among the self-employed.

 

Normally this would not be news; self-employment typically rises in a recovery as jobless workers venture out on their own. Yet this piece had been missing in the current recovery; would-be entrepreneurs lacked either the confidence or the ability to take the plunge.

 

That appears to be finally changing. There were 8.86 million self-employed people in the U.S last month, the most since June and 81,000 more than in December. Including owners of incorporated firms, the number rose by 105,000, the largest gain in nearly 18 months.

 

Stronger self-employment coincides with the pickup in consumer discretionary spending, a sign that more new firms are forming as opportunities grow and credit becomes more available. Real consumer spending rose at an annual rate of 4.4% last quarter, and available data point to continued strong growth, despite the harsh winter weather. Healing in credit markets is also spurring more firm creation. Credit standards for lending to small firms have been easing over the past nine months and demand has grown in the last three.

 

Source: Moody's Analytics



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Next Weeks Monday Report:

 

Office, Industiral and Retail Markets

 

Weber County and Davis County 

 

Lots of surprises!



This Weeks Leads:

 

Faconnable

Faconnable operates nine locations throughout CA, CO, FL, GA, NY and TX.  The stores, offering upscale apparel and accessories for men and women, occupy spaces of 3,000 sq.ft. in regional malls and upscale street front locations.  Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months, with representation by The Greenberg Group.  Preferred cotenants include Burberry, Ferragamo, Saks, Neiman Marcus, Louis Vuitton and Hermes.   For more information, contact Steven Greenberg, The Greenberg Group, 1200 West Broadway, Hewlett, NY 11557

 

Ethan Allen

Ethan Allen Global, Inc. trades as Ethan Allen at 280 locations nationwide and internationally.  The stores, offering home furnishings and accessories, occupy spaces of 10,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and lifestyle and specialty centers.  Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.  Typical leases run 10 years with options.  Preferred cotenants include high-end retailers.  Preferred demographics include a trade-area population earning $75,000 as the average household income.  The company is also looking to relocate existing stores. For more information, contact Ann Zaccaria, Ethan Allen Global, Inc., Ethan Allen Drive, Danbury, CT 06811

 

Citi Trends

Citi Trends, Inc. trades as Citi Trends at 450 locations throughout the mid-Atlantic, midwest and southeastern regions of the U.S., as well as CA, NV and TX.  The stores, offering men's, women's and children's apparel, footwear and accessories, occupy spaces of 12,000 sq.ft. to 15,000 sq.ft. in neighborhood, power and strip centers.  Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing markets during the coming 18 months.  Typical leases run five years.  A vanilla shell and specific improvements are required.  Preferred cotenants include dollar, grocery, apparel and footwear stores.  For more information, contact Steven Horowitz, Citi Trends, Inc., 104 Coleman Boulevard, Savannah, GA 31408

 

Brio Tuscan Grill, Bravo! Cucina Italiana and Bon Vie Bistro

Bravo Brio Restaurant Group trades as Brio Tuscan Grill, Bravo! Cucina Italiana and Bon Vie Bistro at 86 locations nationwide. The restaurants occupy spaces of 7,000 sq.ft. to 8,500 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and entertainment and lifestyle centers. Plans call for eight to 10 openings throughout the existing market during the coming 18 months for the Brio Tuscan Grill and Bravo! Cucina Italiana concepts. Typical leases run 10 years with two, five-year options. Preferred cotenants include movie theaters and female-friendly retailers. Preferred demographics include a population of 250,000 within five miles earning $75,000 as the average household income. The company prefers to locate in open-air lifestyle centers and upscale fashion malls, and a land area of two acres is required for freestanding locations.  For more information, contact Ron Dee, Bravo Brio Restaurant Group, 18 North Main Street, Suite 4, Chagrin Falls, OH 44022

 

 

 

 


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