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| From
Bonneville Research |
February
14, 2011 |
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Dear Reader,
Last week we did a piece on - "Where the
Mormons are". Many of you responded with questions about where
some of
the counties were located. I have posted on the Bonneville
Research
website a revised table with either the principal city or a well known
city that may help most of you know where the counties are.
Also one correction: Jefferson County, ID
should have been 75.1% not 7.51%.
Food
stamp rolls explode
Nationwide,
one
in seven Americans currently receives help from the government to
put food on the table. All but 14 states saw double-digit spikes in the
number of people getting food stamps over the one-year period that
ended in November 2010.
Idaho,
Nevada, Delaware and Utah had the largest one-year increases in the
country: 28%, 27% and 25% respectively according to the latest USDA
figures.
Why Idaho and
Utah?
Nevada,
which has the country's highest unemployment rate at 14.5 percent may
be understandable, but why Idaho with 9.5% and Utah with a 7.5% rate?
Is it
because unemployment is still three times higher than we were in 2007 -
Idaho 3.4% & Utah 2.5%?
In
2008, Utah and Idaho had some of the lowest participation rates in the
State Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program with only 55% of those
eligible participating where Maine and Oregon had over 92%.
Just running
out of options?
The Utah Food Bank has
been reporting a 40% increase in demand. Figures
of those persons receiving LDS Church assistance are not available.
http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29SNAPcurrPP.htm
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SUPPLEMENTAL
NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM: NUMBER OF PERSONS PARTICIPATING
( Data as of January
31, 2011 )
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Selected States
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November
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October
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November
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November 2010 vs
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2009
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2010
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2010
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Oct-10
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Nov-09
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Preliminary
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Initial
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Idaho
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170,962
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216,658
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219,271
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1.20%
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28.30%
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Nevada
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254,376
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317,641
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322,950
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1.70%
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27.00%
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Delaware
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102,870
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127,255
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129,049
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1.40%
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25.40%
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Utah
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214,761
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271,868
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268,216
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-1.30%
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24.90%
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Florida
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2,430,767
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2,951,682
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2,994,413
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1.40%
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23.20%
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Maryland
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527,111
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630,341
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643,651
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2.10%
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22.10%
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New Jersey
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578,954
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702,119
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706,702
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0.70%
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22.10%
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Texas
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3,228,061
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3,893,077
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3,925,119
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0.80%
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21.60%
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New Mexico
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334,537
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393,656
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399,454
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1.50%
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19.40%
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Hawaii
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131,361
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150,480
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153,018
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1.70%
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16.50%
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California
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3,041,650
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3,499,878
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3,521,881
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0.60%
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15.80%
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Alaska
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69,048
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66,363
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79,242
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19.40%
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14.80%
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Colorado
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379,956
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428,941
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435,306
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1.50%
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14.60%
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Washington
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897,113
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1,015,622
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1,019,791
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0.40%
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13.70%
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Montana
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106,343
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118,915
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120,013
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0.90%
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12.90%
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Oregon
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672,036
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744,317
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749,498
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0.70%
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11.50%
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Wyoming
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32,332
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35,703
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35,924
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0.60%
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11.10%
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Arizona
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986,276
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1,055,205
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1,050,181
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-0.50%
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6.50%
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TOTAL
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38,183,998
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43,200,837
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43,595,794
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0.90%
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14.20%
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http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29SNAPcurrPP.htm
http://frac.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/2008_snaprates_toptens.pdf
www.BonnevilleResearch.com
801-364-5300 o
801-673-9021 c
Jon Springmeyer
801-746-5706 o
801-673-9021 c
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Scorecard:
The office market is
driven directly by jobs!
Salt Lake County
lost 39,479 jobs between 2007 and 2010.
It is surprising that the
Office market has held as well as it has.
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Salt Lake County Direct Office Space
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Total SF
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Available SF
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Absorption SF
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Vacancy
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Rents PSF**
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Central Business District
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Overall
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2010
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7,174,194
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1,042,216
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21,570
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14.53%
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$23.58
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2009
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7,103,494
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1,291,165
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(165,198)
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18.18%
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$23.22
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2008
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6,655,080
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685,225
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76,468
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10.30%
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$21.73
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2007
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6,585,361
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725,463
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(55,864)
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11.02%
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$21.67
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Class A
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2010
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3,717,513
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478,702
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(12,779)
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12.88%
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$28.69
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2009
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3,389,613
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656,698
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(129,081)
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19.37%
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$27.83
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2008
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2,671,086
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106,713
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67,438
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4.00%
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$26.71
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2007
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2,671,086
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174,151
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(76,273)
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6.52%
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$26.54
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Class B
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2010
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1,808,070
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231,871
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54,007
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12.82%
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$20.49
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2009
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2,132,070
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399,222
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(65,456)
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18.72%
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$21.75
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2008
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2,564,477
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304,457
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(28,099)
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11.87%
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$19.83
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2007
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2,420,070
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190,003
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63,698
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7.85%
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$19.59
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Class C
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2010
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1,648,611
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331,643
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(19,658)
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20.12%
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$15.52
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2009
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1,581,811
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235,245
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29,339
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14.87%
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$15.31
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2008
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1,419,517
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274,055
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37,129
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19.31%
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$15.77
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2007
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1,494,205
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361,309
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(43,289)
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21.18%
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$16.24
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Periphery
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Overall
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2010
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3,617,561
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412,725
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(23,964)
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11.41%
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$19.08
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2009
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3,617,561
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313,607
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(51,274)
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8.67%
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$19.19
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2008
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3,617,561
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262,333
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26,008
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7.25%
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$18.94
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2007
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3,629,073
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263,831
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270,266
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7.27%
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$18.62
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Class A
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2010
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1,332,687
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34,911
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6,000
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2.62%
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$22.79
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2009
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1,332,687
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33,250
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(7,380)
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2.49%
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$23.06
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2008
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1,332,687
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25,870
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50,677
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1.94%
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$22.58
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2007
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1,272,687
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16,547
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251,612
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1.30%
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$22.65
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Class B
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2010
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1,404,551
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219,641
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(9,076)
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15.64%
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$18.71
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2009
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1,404,551
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124,105
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(4,527)
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8.84%
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$18.68
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2008
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1,404,551
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119,578
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29,612
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8.51%
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$18.77
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2007
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1,401,120
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149,190
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6,336
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10.65%
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$18.28
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Class C
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2010
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880,323
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158,173
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(20,888)
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15.59%
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$14.05
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2009
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880,323
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156,252
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(39,367)
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17.75%
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$14.15
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2008
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880,323
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116,885
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(54,281)
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13.28%
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$13.67
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2007
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955,896
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98,094
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12,318
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10.26%
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$13.77
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Suburban
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Overall
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2010
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20,490,990
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3,455,483
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(102,823)
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16.86%
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$19.61
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2009
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20,371,124
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3,281,521
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304,522
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16.11%
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$19.91
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2008
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20,428,791
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3,029,369
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204,884
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14.83%
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$19.93
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2007
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19,085,324
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2,163,421
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938,900
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11.34%
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$19.42
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Class A
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2010
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7,889,100
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787,471
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66,296
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9.98%
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$23.01
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2009
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7,796,067
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944,990
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198,505
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12.12%
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$23.22
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2008
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8,082,140
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1,007,171
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497,090
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12.46%
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$23.11
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2007
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6,908,703
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668,439
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768,815
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9.68%
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$22.73
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Class B
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2010
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8,207,331
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1,597,592
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(169,005)
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19.47%
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$18.95
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2009
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8,268,550
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1,348,061
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158,332
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16.30%
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$19.33
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2008
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7,921,891
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1,202,661
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(108,651)
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15.18%
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$19.32
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2007
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7,595,027
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867,665
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135,967
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11.42%
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$19.06
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Class C
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2010
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4,394,559
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1,070,420
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(114)
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24.36%
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$14.76
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2009
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4,306,507
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988,470
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(52,315)
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22.95%
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$15.02
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2008
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4,424,760
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819,537
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(183,555)
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18.52%
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$15.31
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2007
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4,581,594
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627,317
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34,118
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16.69%
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$15.01
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Total Market
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2010
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31,282,745
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4,910,424
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(105,217)
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15.70%
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$20.47
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2009
|
31,092,179
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4,886,293
|
88,050
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15.72%
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$20.58
|
|
2008
|
30,701,432
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3,976,927
|
307,360
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12.95%
|
$20.20
|
|
2007
|
29,300,388
|
3,152,715
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1,153,302
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10.76%
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$19.82
|
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Economic Notes:
Global Business
Confidence:
The
global economy has started 2011 strongly, according to the global
business confidence survey. Sentiment is as strong as it has been since
summer 2006, before the financial panic and Great Recession. Sales,
equipment investment and hiring have all improved in recent weeks.
Responses to the broadest questions in the survey regarding current
conditions and the outlook through midyear are particularly positive.
Businesses are more upbeat across most of the globe, with the exception
of Japan. Pricing power remains modest and is not consistent with
concerns that inflation is set to accelerate significantly.
Treasury
Budget: -3%
The
unified budget deficit for January was $50 billion. Through the first
four months of fiscal 2011, the deficit was down 3% from last year.
Although the budget deficit has been shrinking as the economy has
recovered, it will widen again in 2011 with the fiscal policy agreement
between President Obama and congressional Republicans.
Wholesale
Trade (MWTR): +1.0%
Wholesale
inventories rose 1% in December, surpassing the consensus estimate of a
0.7% increase. Sales advanced 0.4%. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose
to 1.16.
Consumer
Credit (G19): $6.1 bil
Consumer
credit outstanding increased by a surprisingly strong $6.1 billion in
December, reaching a total of $2.41 trillion. It was particularly
noteworthy that revolving credit increased for the first time since
August 2008, snapping a remarkable 27-month losing streak. Nonrevolving
credit balances also rose, though at a slower pace than in the recent
months.
Jobless Claims:-47,000
In
a surprise, initial claims decreased by 36,000 to 383,000 for the week
ending February 5; the prior week's data were revised from 415,000 to
419,000. This was the second large decline in a row; if sustained, it
would suggest that the labor market is recovering faster. Continuing
claims decreased by 47,000 to 3.888 million for the week ending January
29, though there remain millions more on extended and emergency
benefits not counted in this figure.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey:
21.0%
The
JOLTS report for December, which straddles the December and January
payroll employment releases, shows little progress for the labor
market. The number of job openings edged lower, extending the prior
month's modest dip. The number of hires has also lost some traction,
receding slightly. Despite the small decline, the hires rate was
unmoved at 3.2%. The number of separations nudged higher, pushed by
both increasing quits and an uptick in layoffs. Like the hires rate,
the small changes were not enough to move the separations rate, which
also stands at 3.2%. Private sector hiring remains slightly stronger
than separations, but hiring is not yet strong enough to drive robust
job growth.
NAR Metro Prices:+ 0.2%
On a
year-ago basis, the national median house price rose only slightly in
the fourth quarter, even though total sales are down 19.5% over the
same period. National prices increased 0.2% from last year, about the
same as the 0.2% year-to-year decrease in the third quarter.
Performance was mixed across regions: The Northeast is above year-ago
levels, and the West is below. Meanwhile, the South and Midwest are
unchanged. Similarly, at the metro level, performance was split: 71 out
of 152 metro areas remain below year-ago levels
MBA
Mortgage Applications Survey: 464.7
Mortgage
applications declined this week with weakness showing in all three
composite indices. The market index fell 5.5% from last week and is now
at 464.7. The purchase and refinance indices decreased 1.4% and 7.7%
this week, respectively. Both the purchase index and the refinance
index have generally trended down since the beginning of January.
Chain Store Sales Snapshot: 2.2%
Chain
store sales posted their first gain of calendar 2011 despite continued
adverse weather. In the latest week, sales rose 2.2% according to the
ICSC, reversing the declines of the prior two weeks. Year-over-year
growth improved to 2.5%. Low sales volume tends to increase volatility
and weather sensitivity at this time of year.
Oil and
Gas Inventories: 345.1
mil barrels
Crude
oil inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels during the week ending
February 4, in line with expectations. Distillate inventories rose by
300,000 barrels, contrasting with expectations of a 1-million barrel
decline, while gasoline inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels, above
the expected 2.6-million barrel increase. Inventories fell by 900,000
barrels in Cushing OK. Refinery capacity utilization increased from
84.5% to 84.7%. Petroleum demand rose. This mixed report should push
oil prices higher.
Natural
Gas Storage Report: -209 bcf
Working
gas in underground storage fell by 209 billion cubic feet during the
week ending February 4, far exceeding the consensus estimate of a 196
bcf decline. This report will push natural gas prices higher.
Source:
Economy.com
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Grants:
Create
Assisted Living Facilities!
Assisted Living Conversion
Program For Eligible Multifamily Housing Projects
POSTED: 1/24/2011
FUNDING SOURCE: HUD
ELIGIBILITY: Eligible multifamily housing developments specified in the
RFP
$ AVAILABLE: $30,000,000
GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
MAX GRANT SIZE: N.A.
DEADLINE: 3/29/2011
CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-01-28/html/2011-1899.htm
DESCRIPTION:
Grants for the physical conversion of eligible multifamily assisted
housing projects or portions of projects to assisted living facilities
(ALFs).
Grants for Native American
Organizations!
Social and Economic Development
Strategies for Native Americans (SEDS)
POSTED: 2/1/2011
FUNDING SOURCE: Administration for Native Americans
ELIGIBILITY: Tribes and Alaska Native entities
$ AVAILABLE: $7,850,000
GRANTS AVAILABLE: 36
MAX GRANT SIZE: $400,000
DEADLINE: 4/1/2011
CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.acf.hhs.gov/grants/open/foa/view/HHS-2011-ACF-ANA-NA-0143
DESCRIPTION:
Grants for a wide variety of economic or social development projects
that will improve life outcomes for Native Americans and/or the
self-governance ability of Native American Tribes and Alaskan Native
entities. Most project concepts are eligible, with the exception of
construction activities.
Improve Knowledge of American
History!
Teaching American History Grant
Program
POSTED: 2/2/2011
FUNDING SOURCE: Dept. of Education
ELIGIBILITY: LEAs
$ AVAILABLE: $2,000,000
GRANTS AVAILABLE: 80
MAX GRANT SIZE: N.A.
DEADLINE: 3/4/2011 (LOI); 4/4/2011 (final)
CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-02-02/html/2011-2290.htm
DESCRIPTION: Grants to improve the teaching of American History through
professional development for public school teachers.
HUD Service Coordinator Grants!
Service Coordinators in
Multifamily Housing
POSTED: 1/25/2011
FUNDING SOURCE: HUD
ELIGIBILITY: Eligible subsidized housing developments
$ AVAILABLE: $31,000,000
GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
MAX GRANT SIZE: N.A.
DEADLINE: 3/24/2011
CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.grants.gov/search/search.do?mode=VIEW&oppId=66313
DESCRIPTION:
Grants to owners of eligible subsidized housing developments to hire
staff to coordinate supportive services for elderly residents and/or
residents living with disabilities.
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Bonneville Research
Founded
in 1976, Bonneville Research provides expert consulting services for
public and private agencies. Our talented and experienced professionals
create customized solutions, emerging from an understanding of each
community's unique set of challenges.
We specialize in:
- Redevelopment
Planning
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Estate Acquisition
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Services
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Estate Economics
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Design & Development
Our
Mission:
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and social future.
Our Core Values:
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and innovation
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and ethical behavior above all else
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in products and services
If we can
help with any of the questions/issues you are facing, simply reply
to this email.
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Belatedly, recovery sparks rise in entrepreneurship:
While January's employment report
was one of the more confusing in recent memory, the broad set of
incoming data suggests the recovery is gaining momentum. In particular,
the data appear to be accurately showing improvement among the
self-employed.
Normally
this would not be news; self-employment typically rises in a recovery
as jobless workers venture out on their own. Yet this piece had been
missing in the current recovery; would-be entrepreneurs lacked either
the confidence or the ability to take the plunge.
That
appears to be finally changing. There were 8.86 million self-employed
people in the U.S last month, the most since June and 81,000 more than
in December. Including owners of incorporated firms, the number rose by
105,000, the largest gain in nearly 18 months.
Stronger
self-employment coincides with the pickup in consumer discretionary
spending, a sign that more new firms are forming as opportunities grow
and credit becomes more available. Real consumer spending rose at an
annual rate of 4.4% last quarter, and available data point to continued
strong growth, despite the harsh winter weather. Healing in credit
markets is also spurring more firm creation. Credit standards for lending to small firms
have been easing over the past nine months and demand has grown in the
last three.
Source: Moody's Analytics
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Next Weeks Monday Report:
Office,
Industiral and Retail Markets
Weber County
and Davis County
Lots of
surprises!
|
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This Weeks Leads:
Faconnable
Faconnable
operates nine locations throughout CA, CO, FL, GA, NY and TX. The
stores, offering upscale apparel and accessories for men and women,
occupy spaces of 3,000 sq.ft. in regional malls and upscale street
front locations. Growth opportunities are sought nationwide
during the
coming 18 months, with representation by The Greenberg Group.
Preferred cotenants include Burberry, Ferragamo, Saks, Neiman Marcus,
Louis Vuitton and Hermes. For more information, contact
Steven
Greenberg, The Greenberg Group, 1200 West Broadway, Hewlett, NY 11557
Ethan Allen
Ethan
Allen Global, Inc. trades as Ethan Allen at 280 locations nationwide
and internationally. The stores, offering home furnishings and
accessories, occupy spaces of 10,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations
and lifestyle and specialty centers. Growth opportunities are
sought
nationwide during the coming 18 months. Typical leases run 10
years
with options. Preferred cotenants include high-end
retailers.
Preferred demographics include a trade-area population earning $75,000
as the average household income. The company is also looking to
relocate existing stores. For more information, contact Ann Zaccaria,
Ethan Allen Global, Inc., Ethan Allen Drive, Danbury, CT 06811
Citi Trends
Citi
Trends, Inc. trades as Citi Trends at 450 locations throughout the
mid-Atlantic, midwest and southeastern regions of the U.S., as well as
CA, NV and TX. The stores, offering men's, women's and children's
apparel, footwear and accessories, occupy spaces of 12,000 sq.ft. to
15,000 sq.ft. in neighborhood, power and strip centers. Growth
opportunities are sought throughout the existing markets during the
coming 18 months. Typical leases run five years. A vanilla
shell and
specific improvements are required. Preferred cotenants include
dollar, grocery, apparel and footwear stores. For more
information,
contact Steven Horowitz, Citi Trends, Inc., 104 Coleman Boulevard,
Savannah, GA 31408
Brio
Tuscan Grill, Bravo! Cucina Italiana and Bon Vie Bistro
Bravo
Brio
Restaurant Group trades as Brio Tuscan Grill, Bravo! Cucina Italiana
and Bon Vie Bistro at 86 locations nationwide. The restaurants occupy
spaces of 7,000 sq.ft. to 8,500 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and
entertainment and lifestyle centers. Plans call for eight to 10
openings throughout the existing market during the coming 18 months for
the Brio Tuscan Grill and Bravo! Cucina Italiana concepts. Typical
leases run 10 years with two, five-year options. Preferred cotenants
include movie theaters and female-friendly retailers. Preferred
demographics include a population of 250,000 within five miles earning
$75,000 as the average household income. The company prefers to locate
in open-air lifestyle centers and upscale fashion malls, and a land
area of two acres is required for freestanding locations. For
more
information, contact Ron Dee, Bravo Brio Restaurant Group, 18 North
Main Street, Suite 4, Chagrin Falls, OH 44022
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Bonneville Research is
proud to join Yvon Chouinard,
founder of Patagonia, and Craig Mathews, owner of Blue Ribbon Flies and
700 other companies in recognizing that industry and ecology are
inherently connected, and to make a commitment to contribute 1% of
sales to environmental groups around the world.
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