Small Business Survival Index 2009: State Rankings

 

Rank State SBSI Score

Source: The Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council)

 

Global Business Confidence: +
Global business confidence at the end of the year rebounded to its highest level since the middle of 2008, before the worst of the global downturn. However, the holiday week may have affected responses, and abstracting from the weekly volatility in the survey responses, the survey remains consistent with a tentative global economic recovery. The best recent news from the survey is clear improvements in sales and equipment investment and stronger pricing power. Businesses also remain very upbeat about the outlook for the first half of 2010. In general, sentiment is more positive in Europe and among professional and business services firms. The weakest survey responses are in regard to inventories and hiring.
 
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence:+ 2.3
The Conference Board index of consumer confidence gained ground in December, following November's slight increase. In the latest month, the index added 2.3 points, to 52.9 in December, from November's upwardly revised 50.6 (originally 49.5). The gain was led by improving impressions of expectations, as that component added 5.3 points, to 75.6. The present situation component remains mired in the doldrums, falling back to 18.8, from 21.2 in the prior month. Assessments of current labor market and business conditions both lost ground in December.
 
GDP: 2.24%
There was a larger than expected downward revision to real GDP growth in the third quarter; it came in at a 2.2% annualized gain, compared with the previously reported 2.8%. The change came from downward revisions to business fixed investment, inventories and consumer spending. The recovery is under way, but this does raise concerns about its strength and the prospects for a turnaround in the labor market.
 
Risk of Recession: -4%
The probability that the U.S. will be in recession in six months fell from 33% to 29% in November. The decline reflects the improvement in the labor market and higher equity prices. That said, even if declines in nonfarm payrolls end over the next few months, policymakers must not become complacent. Additional monetary and fiscal stimulus may be necessary to support consumer spending, housing and business investment and to reduce the chance of a double-dip recession.

Personal Income:+ 0.4%
Personal income rose 0.4% in November following upwardly revised growth of 0.3% the prior two months. It was the fastest growth since May's stimulus inflated surge. Wage income rose 0.3%, the fastest growth since April. Spending rose 0.5% led by goods, as service spending was unchanged. The saving rate held steady at 4.7%. Real spending rose 0.2%. The core PCE deflator was unchanged as energy price gains drove the top-line deflator up 0.2%.
 
Durable Goods (Advance): 0.2%
New orders for manufactured durable goods increased by a smaller than anticipated 0.2% in November, following October's unrevised -0.6%. This is only the second increase in the past four months, leaving durable goods down 6% on a year-ago basis. Transportation was a drag on orders in November, falling by 5.5%. Core capital goods orders increased 2.9%, following a revised 2% decline in October (previously -2.6%). Inventories fell between October and November, but the declines have moderated over the past several months. Overall, manufacturing's recovery is intact, and the support from slower inventory liquidation will help real GDP increase 3.3% at an annual rate in the current quarter.

Mass Layoffs: 1,797
The number of layoffs involving at least 50 workers from a single establishment decreased to 1,797 in November from 2,127 in the previous month. This is the fewest since July 2008. These layoffs involved 165,346, down from 217,182 in October and the third straight decline. Data on mass layoffs provide further evidence of the gradually more positive labor market picture.
 
Jobless Claims: -22,000
Initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased for the second consecutive week, falling by 22,000 to 432,000 for the week ending December 26. Though initial claims have been moving in the right direction, the magnitude of the past two weeks' declines should be taken with a grain of salt, considering the influence of seasonal factors. Meanwhile, continuing claims fell by 57,000 to 4.981 million for the week ending December 19.

S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes: -7.3
Existing-house prices rose during the three months ending in October, increasing for the fifth consecutive month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 0.4% during the three months ending in September from the three months ending in August. Tracking the 20-city index, the seasonally adjusted 10-city index rose about 0.4% during the same period. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index decreased 7.3% on a year-ago basis in October, compared with a revised 9.3% decline in September.
 
Existing-Home Sales: +7.4%
Sales of existing homes posted another strong increase. Existing-home sales increased 7.4% in November from the month before, following a 10.1% increase in October. At 6.5 million annualized units, sales are up by more than 44% compared with one year ago and are running at their strongest pace since early 2007. Similarly, inventories improved, sliding to 6.5 months. Though up from last month, house prices are down for the year: The median existing-house price declined by 4.3% from a year ago.

New-Home Sales (C25): -11.3%
Sales of new homes surprised on the downside in November, falling by 11.3% from the month before. Census nudged October sales down by 7%, reducing the November-October m/m decline. At 355,000 annualized units, new-home sales are running at their weakest pace since February, effectively negating all the gains of the preceding few months. Months of supply increased to 7.9. The median sales price is down by only 1.9% from last year.

MBA Mortgage Applications Survey: -10%
In the week ending December 18, all three indices fell more than 10% from the week before. The market index fell 10.7% from the week before, slipping to 595.8. The purchase index now stands at 213.3, a decline of 11.6%. Even though it was the best performer, the refinance index still fell 10.1% to 2,889.9.

FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index: -1.9%
The FHFA purchase-only house price index declined by 1.9% from a year ago in October, a smaller rate of decline than had been expected. On a month-ago basis, the purchase-only index rose by 0.6%, the largest single gain since May. Led by the Pacific census division, most regions of the nation shared in the increase. Meanwhile, the South Atlantic division reported a sizable decline in house prices, which fell by 1.1% over the month.

Chain Store Sales Snapshot:+ 0.4%
Chain store sales increased 0.4% in the week ending December 26, according to the ICSC sales index. Chain store sales have increased for three consecutive weeks and are up 2.3% on a year-ago basis, compared with 0.4% previously. Sales got a lift from the winter storms earlier this month, which pushed more holiday shopping into this week.
 
Oil and Gas Inventories: -4.9 mil barrels
Distillate inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels versus the consensus expectation for a 2 million barrel decline. Gasoline inventories fell by 0.9 million barrels. Refinery capacity utilization was unchanged at 80%. Petroleum demand fell modestly. This report could cause oil prices to rise.
 
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report: -124.00 bcf
Working gas in underground storage fell by 124 billion cubic feet during the week ending December 25, much less than the consensus estimate of 145 billion cubic feet. This report may send gas prices lower.

Source: Economy.com